Bihar now boast of a surplus rainfall of three per cent, thanks to the heavy downpour from July 12.

PATNA :-   

Major features of weather forecast (upto 0830 hours IST of 21st July 2012)

• Rain/thundershowers would occur at most places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states during next 24 hours and decrease thereafter.
• Rain/thundershowers would occur at many places over west coast, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Orissa.
• Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over east Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
• Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat region, Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Lakshadweep.
• Rain/thundershowers would occur at one or two places over rest parts of the country.
• Latest available satellite picture (Fig.1) indicates the current cloud condition across Indian region.
• The climate outlook for the period of seven days i.e. 18th to 25th July 2012 (Fig.2) shows that rain/thundershowers may occur over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and northeastern states, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat region, Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Weather warning during next 3 days

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during next 48 hours.
• Heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Bihar, Konkan & Goa and coastal Karnataka during next 48 hours and over east Uttar Pradesh on 19th and 20th July.

Ashish Sen, the director (radar) of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Patna, “After an active entry of monsoon in mid-June, it became weak towards the end of the month because of the stagnant position of the monsoon trough line on the foothills of the Himalayas. A secondary trough line formed over eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Bengal towards the end of the first week of July. Thereafter, the primary trough line lying on the foothills of the Himalayas gradually became weak and the secondary trough became stronger. That led to the heavy rainfall across Bihar from July 12. As a result, the state received 51 per cent surplus rainfall between July 12 and 18.”

Sen claimed that the state could reach the normal level of monsoon rainfall — 19 per cent more or less than the normall rainfall — as the moderate to heavy rainfall would continue till July end. “There would be good rainfall across the entire Gangetic plains, including Bihar, with an even distribution across the state up to end-July. Patna is also likely to receive good rainfall in the next few days,” he said.

Abdus Sattar, the assistant professor of meteorology, Rajendra Agriculture University, Pusa, Samastipur, had a different opinion. “Monsoon will remain active over Bihar in the next two to three days. The intensity (of rainfall) will come down. However, there would no dry spell condition. Districts in the northeast Bihar would receive heavy rainfall,” he said.

The evening bulletin of IMD, Delhi, on Wednesday stated that the southwest monsoon has been active over Bihar and the axis of monsoon trough would continue to run to north of its normal position during next two days. It also gave a forecast of rain and thundershowers at many places across Bihar till July 21.